Bitcoin Volatility Expected on Friday’s Bank of Japan Rate Decision. Here’s Why

The Bank of Japan, the third largest central bank in the world and the only one to maintain a pro-liquidity policy that is very loose, could be the answer.

In December, BOJ maintained the target but allowed the yield to fluctuate within the +/-50 basis point (bps) range. The bank may widen the band on Friday to 100bps and thus reduce the liquidity-boosting bond purchase.

The first steps would be to either increase the yield band for 10-year JGBs or focus on the zone of shorter maturities. The base scenario is that of the shorter maturity zone, but it could be close.

Goldman Sachs economics team’s note to clients on 21st July said that the former option could be considered desirable. This is because the market can probably better anticipate the effects of the band widening.

The research team explained that if the BOJ maintained its 10-year target of 0% then, increasing the range to +-100 bp, from +-50 bp, at present would be akin for the BOJ to effectively scrap YCC, or admitting to having lost the ability control yields.

BNP Paribas also expects that the BOJ will widen the YCC range to 100 basis points. IMF urged Japan on Wednesday to abandon YCC in order to prepare for a future interest rate rise from the current minus 0.1%.

This may seem insignificant to the bitcoin market but it’s not always true. In the past cryptocurrency has shown negative correlations to bond yields and volatility of the bond market, as well as the dollar index and global liquidity conditions.

Other words, the volatility of traditional markets due to potential changes in BOJ’s YCC could also affect the crypto market.

Bitcoin was valued at $29470 as of the time of publication, a 0.4% increase on the day according to CoinDesk.